This article is shared with Urban Toronto.
Debates over Metrolinx's Big Move returned to the headlines this week
with the release of a detailed new report prepared by planner Michael
Schabas for the Neptis Foundation. While some observers may dismiss it
as “yet another” study of transit in Toronto, we can never have too much
information about a plan that will, after all, cost tens of billions of
dollars. The report brings some useful and occasionally provocative
suggestions to the table and also effectively criticizes some of the
weakness of the GTA’s transit planning process. This article will
examine some of Schabas’ conclusions.
Regional Rail and Fare Integration
I was extremely pleased to read a detailed assessment of the enormous benefits for reasonable cost that would be produced by
real regional rail in Toronto.
As Schabas effectively argues, Metrolinx’s GO electrification study was
flawed as it concentrated on a mediocre and arbitrary 30-minute
frequency that research demonstrates is inadequate to generate the
massive ridership increase that comes from passengers not needing to
rely on schedules, and because it insisted on the retention of massive
10-car bi-level trains. Both of these assumptions greatly limit the
potential benefits of electric multiple unit operation. More
importantly, the study did not consider the huge ridership that could be
gained by allowing riders to pay the same fare to ride regional rail
and local transit. (More on fare integration in an upcoming article)
Schabas’ solution is to maintain a separate fleet of
locomotive-hauled bi-levels for peak period service while using smaller
electric multiple unit trains to maintain high frequency off-peak. While
certainly a better approach than 30-minute infrequent bi-levels all
day, it does not correspond with best practices on most real regional
rail systems. They manage with a single fleet for peak and off-peak even
with far higher ridership than Toronto. Many German S-Bahn systems, for
example, move far more people than GO in the peak periods with
single-level multiple units. They accomplish this through high
frequency, just like the subway, which also moves far more people than
GO. Bi-level cars may seem like a reasonable solution to add capacity,
but in fact they are one of the biggest causes of capacity limitations
on the system: because they take so long to unload at Union Station,
headways are severely limited. With a better platform layout and EMU
trains with no stairs and more doors per car to speed loading and
unloading, frequencies of five minutes or better would be possible. Such
a system would be able to move far more people in the peak period than
even GO’s massive 12-car trains.
The benefits of EMUs go far beyond shorter headways and reduced
emissions; a cutting-edge regional rail multiple unit like the Stadler
FLIRT or comparable models from Bombardier would provide dramatic
acceleration improvements over existing GO trains. A FLIRT making all
stops from Hamilton, for example, would be as fast as existing GO trains
from Hamilton running express after Oakville. This would permit the
addition of more stops for rapid-transit-style service without
sacrificing travel times. (The benefits of electrification will be
examined in greater detail in a future article.)
Loco-hauled trains could be retained if necessary for longer distance
trains to outlying cities like Kitchener or Barrie, which would likely
be limited-stop services where acceleration is less important.
 |
| CityRail Plan central area, cartography by Craig White |
The Downtown Relief Line
The Neptis report goes a bit astray when it examines the Downtown
Relief Line. There is no question that real regional rail (not “GO
Trains,” as has been reported in the media) would provide significant
relief to the subway system. However, that is only one of the many
benefits of the DRL.
The DRL would be extremely useful even in the context of CityRail
because it would provide service to riders in the few areas that aren’t
particularly well served by regional rail. Schabas suggests that riders
on the Danforth line could easily transfer to regional rail at Main
Street, but that connection is in reality quite awkward. Given that
passengers would be required to walk considerably further than the
Spadina station connection between Bloor and YUS lines, it is likely
that relatively few people would choose it over continuing to transfer
at Bloor-Yonge.
The effect on the Yonge Line north of Bloor would also be limited.
Most riders on the line, which will become increasingly overcrowded as
it is extended north, transfer from connecting bus routes from the east.
These riders would switch en masse to a Don Mills extension of the DRL,
dramatically reducing congestion on Yonge and providing much better
service to riders in that part of the city. Unlike the Georgetown
corridor, for example, regional rail in the Richmond Hill corridor would
not connect very effectively with surface routes because of its deep
valley location.
Finally, the DRL serves some of the fastest-developing parts of the
city. The waterfront, East Bayfront, Portlands, Cityplace, and
Leslieville areas are all seeing massive growth and development.
Furthermore, it serves areas where existing transit service is slow and
unreliable. It could reverse the significant ridership declines that the
east-west downtown streetcar routes have suffered over the past two
decades.
 |
| The Downtown Relief Line, map by Christopher Livett |
The key problem with the cost/benefit case for the DRL as evaluated
in the Neptis report is the extraordinarily high cost estimate provided
by Metrolinx. The most striking feature of almost all transit planning
reports over the past decade is the complete absence of attention to
cost control. Very few studies include an examination of different
approaches (i.e. underground vs. elevated) or routes and the cost
implications. This is in stark contrast with earlier reports, such as
the original 1985 Downtown Relief Line study, in which cost was the
primary factor being considered when different routes were evaluated.
That report concluded that the most economical routing would be along
the rail corridor from Bay Street to the Don River, where vacant land is
available for a subway. The cost savings would surely be dramatic since
virtually no new infrastructure beyond tracks and surface stations
would be required in that segment. It would have the added benefit of
running right through the heart of the rapidly developing East Bayfront
and West Don Lands areas. Such a route does not appear to have been
considered in the contemporary DRL reports. The Don Mills segment, as
well, is planned to be built entirely underground even though an
elevated routing through that area would clearly be feasible and would
likely produce enormous cost savings (
See "The Rising Cost of Rapid Transit Construction" for more detail).
Underground construction costs in Toronto are becoming increasingly
out-of-line when compared with peer cities both in Canada and Europe.
Schabas uncovers a particularly striking case of inattention to costs in the Scarborough rapid transit Benefits Case Assessment:
“TTC seems to be requiring a fairly elaborate and expensive yard.
The BCA (which was prepared by consultants) notes, ‘The cost of a
Vancouver facility with comparable capacity was roughly $200m lower,
although the yard alignment and maintenance practices differ from the
TTC’s.’ If Metrolinx thinks there may be the opportunity to save $200
million, surely it should give this more attention than a short
footnote?” (60)
Automated Light Metro
Certainly one of the most provocative elements of the Neptis report
is its advocacy for automated light metro. While the technology has been
extremely popular and successfully implemented around the world, in
cities as varied as Copenhagen, Paris, London, Vancouver, Tokyo, Moscow,
and Madrid, debates about transit in Toronto have remained rigidly
within the subway vs. light rail framework.
Part of the blame for the technology falling out of fashion in
Toronto comes from the Scarborough RT, which is the only example of
automated light metro in the GTA (though the TTC chooses to have an
operator in the cab). This is a poor example of the technology, however,
that should not discredit an entire approach to transit. Automated
light metro does not need to rely on a proprietary technology like the
RT with its complicated and sometimes problematic linear induction
propulsion system. At its simplest, automated light metro is just a
driverless, fully grade-separated train that is lighter and quieter than
the subway to facilitate elevated operation when desired.
The Neptis report illustrates a number of significant benefits to the
Automated Light Metro technology. Its operating costs over the long
term are significantly lower than non-grade-separated light rail since
it does not require a driver. The lack of a driver also makes it
possible to run shorter trains at maximum frequency all the time for no
additional cost. This is a major benefit on less busy routes where the
need for a driver could result in unreasonably long waits for
passengers. Vehicle costs, in many cases, are also lower than for LRT at
a given passenger capacity. Schabas makes the case fairly effectively
that automated light metro would be suitable for the Eglinton line,
providing faster trips, better frequencies, and greater reliability.
Altogether, he persuasively argues that it would provide a significantly
better cost/benefit ratio over the long term than the existing LRT
plan.
The Neptis report also underplays the enormous importance of
transfers from feeder buses in providing the high ridership that makes
Toronto’s existing suburban rapid transit so successful. The large
majority of riders at Toronto’s suburban subway stations don’t walk to
the station from the surrounding neighbourhood; instead, they arrive by
bus. There has not been much study about whether bus riders will
transfer to a surface LRT that only offers, according to Metrolinx,
about 25% faster trips than a bus. This is of critical importance on
Eglinton, since if passengers on north-south bus routes decide to stay
on the bus until they reach the Danforth line, rather than transferring
to the Eglinton Crosstown, it would make the justification of the
multi-billion dollar project much weaker.
 |
| Vancouver's Canada Line, image by Michael Berry from Wikipedia |
The Canada Line in Vancouver is an excellent example of an automated
light metro line with a comparable capacity and length to the Eglinton
Crosstown line (more on this subject
here).
It is, however, completely grade-separated and so will offer a
considerably faster and more reliable trip than a surface LRT that faces
obstruction from traffic lights. It is also fully automated, permitting
higher frequencies and lower operating costs, particularly off-peak.
Built as a public-private partnership, it cost governments $2.5
billion—less than half of the Eglinton Crosstown—and was completed in
time for the 2010 Olympics as planned.
Of course, all of these points assume that redesigning the Eglinton
line yet again is desirable. Certainly, it would do nothing to dispel
the image of disarray that has surrounded many recent Toronto transit
projects. It could also bring significant cancellation costs, though
they might be reduced if Bombardier is retained to produce the vehicles
for the redesigned line. While it is difficult to argue with Schabas
when he says that this project will be with us for decades so it should
be built right, there are significant costs to halting and redesigning
the project yet again and the risk of the useful project falling through
entirely is very real.